Jan 2024: Dynamics driving uplift of airmasses over subtropical southern Africa are critical to creating conditions for wide-spread rainfall. Thando Ndarana has led a paper in which we show that much of this uplift can be understood by warm air rising as it is advected poleward, rather than the textbook explanation of upper-level divergence driving this uplift. Upper-level divergence does drive uplift but in more linear wave regimes, this mechanims happens away from South Africa and in the southern Ocean.

Under Review

Zilli, M.T., et al (2024) The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America, submitted to Clim. Dynamics, Preprint: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3917153/v1.

Peer-Reviewed

Ndarana, T., T.S. Rammopo, M.M. Bopape, N.C.G. Hart, C.J.C Reason, H. Chikoore (2024) A quasi-geostrophic analysis of summertime southern African linear-regime westerly waves, Clim. Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07067-0.

Zilli, M.T., Hart N.C.G, C.A.S Coelho, R. Chadwick, D.C. de Souza, P.Y. Kubota, S.N. Figueroa, I.F.A. Calvacanti (2023) Characteristics of tropical-extratropical cloud bands over tropical and subtropical South America simulated by BAM-1.2 and HadGEM3-GC3.1, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., Accepted, DOI:10.1002/qj.4470, Author Accepted Version.

Coelho, C. et al (2022) A perspective for advancing climate prediction services in Brazil, Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1, e29, https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.29.

Zilli, M. & Hart N.C.G (2021) Rossby wave dynamics over South America explored with automatic Tropical-Extratropical cloud band identification framework, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0020.1.

Senior et al (2021) Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0020.1.

Siderius et al (2021) Climate variability impacts water-energy-food infrastructure performance in Eastern Africa, One Earth, DOI:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.009.

Munday, C., Washington, R., Hart N.C.G (2021) African Low-level jets and their importance for water vapour transport and rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett, 48, e2020GL090999, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090999.

James, R., N.C.G. Hart, C. Munday, C.J.C Reason, and R. Washington (2020) Coupled climate model simulation of Tropical-Extratropical Cloud Bands over southern Africa J. Climate, 33:8579-8602, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0731.1.

Mahlalela P.T., R.C. Blamey, N.C.G. Hart and C.J.C Reason (2020) Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics, Clim. Dyn., 55:2743–2759, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0.

Desboilles, F., E. Howard, R.C. Blamey, R. Barimalala, N.C.G. Hart, and C.J.C. Reason (2020) Role of Ocean Mesoscale Structures in Shaping the Angola-Low Pressure System and the Southern Africa Rainfall Climate Dynamics, Clim. Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05199-1.

Hart, N.C.G, R. Washington, and R. I Maidment (2019) Deep convection over Africa: annual cycle, ENSO, and trends in the hotspots. J. Climate, 32, 8791–8811, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0274.1.

Gaby Langendijk, Caroline Aubry-Wake, Marisol Osman, Carla Gulizia, Faten Attig-Bahar Erik Behrens, André Bertoncini, Neil Hart, Victor S. Indasi, Silvia Innocenti, Eveline C. van der Linden, Nabir Mamnun, Kabir Rasouli, Kevin A. Reed, Nina Ridder, Juan Rivera, Romina Ruscica Bethel U. Ukazu, Jakub P. Walawender, Dean P. Walker, Beth J. Woodhams and Yeliz Yılmaz (2019) Three ways forwards to improve regional information for extreme events: an early career perspective. Frontiers in Environmental Science, Accepted, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00006.

Hart, N.C.G, R. Washington, and R. A Stratton (2018) Stronger local overturning in convective‐permitting regional climate model improves simulation of the subtropical annual cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11334–11342, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079563.

Hart, N.C.G, R. Washington, and C.J.C Reason (2018) On the likelihood of tropical-extratropical cloud bands in the South Indian Convergence Zone during ENSO events. Journal of Climate, 31 (7) pp. 2797-2817, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0221.1.

Martínez-Alvarado, O., S.L. Gray, N.C.G Hart, P.A. Clark, K. Hodges, and M.J. Roberts (2018) Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 13 pp. 044002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a>.

James, R., R. Washington, B. Abiodun, G. Kay, J. Mutemi, W. Pokam, N.C.G. Hart, G. Artan, and C. Senior (2018) Evaluating climate models with an African lens. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (2). pp. 313-336, BAMS-D-16-0090.1.

Hart, N.C.G., S.L. Gray, and P.A. Clark (2017) Sting-jet windstorms over the North Atlantic: Climatology and contribution to extreme wind risk. Journal of Climate, 30 (14). pp. 5455-5471. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0791.1.

Hart, N.C.G., S.L. Gray, and P.A. Clark (2015) Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (9). pp. 3518-3531. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00382.1

Hart, N.C.G., C.J.C. Reason, and N. Fauchereau (2013) Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability, and modulation by the MJO. Climate Dynamics, 41 (5-6). pp. 1199-1212. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1589-4

Hart, N.C.G., C.J.C. Reason, and N. Fauchereau (2012) Building a tropical-extratropical cloud band metbot. Monthly Weather Review, 140 (12). pp. 4005-4016. 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00127.1

Hart, N.C.G., C.J.C. Reason, and N. Fauchereau (2010) Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall. Monthly Weather Review, 138 (7). pp. 2608-2623. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3070.1

Froneman, P.W., I.J. Ansorge, N. Richoux, J. Blake, R. Daly, J. Sterley, B. Mostert, E. Heyns, J. Sheppard, B. Kuyper, N. Hart, C. George, J. Howard, E. Mustafa, F. Pey, J.R.E. Lutjeharms (2007) Physical and biological processes at the Subtropical Convergence in the South-west Indian Ocean. South African Journal of Science (103) pp. 193-195. DOI

Policy-relevant Reports

Hart, N., R. Blamey, R. James, and FCFA UMFULA Climate Research team (2017): Southern Africa Regional Overview: Studying Variability and Future Change, in Africa’s climate: Helping decision-makers make sense of climate information, Future Climate for Africa, NERC/DfID Programme, United Kingdom.
Holloway A., G. Fortune, V. Chasi, T. Beckman, N. Hart, R. Pharoah, E. Poolman, C. Punt, P. Zweig, (2010): RADAR Western Cape 2010: Risk and Development Annual Review, Disaster Impact Mitigation Programme, University of Cape Town/ University of Stellenbosch, Cape Town, South Africa, pp. 104.

PhD Dissertation

Synoptic-scale rainfall patterns over southern Africa: Scale-interactions with large-scale modes of variability Completed in 2012 at the University of Cape Town.